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How a Simple Line Can Improve Your Trading Success
Elliott Wave International's Jeffrey Kennedy explains many ways to use this basic chart tool
By Elliott Wave International
The following trading lesson has been adapted from Jeffrey Kennedy's eBook, "Trading the Line -- 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading Decisions."
"How to draw a trendline" is one of the first things traders and investors learn when they study technical analysis. Typically, they quickly move on to more advanced topics and too often discard this simplest of all technical tools.
Yet you'd be amazed at the value a simple line can offer when you analyze a market. As Jeffrey Kennedy, editor of Elliott Wave International's Trader's Classroom service, puts it:
"A trendline represents the psychology of the market, specifically, the psychology between the bulls and the bears. If the trendline slopes upward, the bulls are in control. If the trendline slopes downward, the bears are in control. Moreover, the actual angle or slope of a trendline can determine whether or not the market is extremely optimistic or extremely pessimistic."
In other words, a trendline can help you identify the market's trend. And, "the trend is your friend," remember? Consider this example in the price chart of Google.
That one trendline -- drawn between the lows in 2004 and the lows in 2005 -- provided price support for several corrective retracements over the next two years. Each time prices would touch that line, they would rebound higher and higher.
That's pretty basic. But there are many more ways to draw trendlines. For example, when a market is in a correction you can draw a trendline -- and then draw a parallel line to create a channel. You'll find that it often "contains" the corrective price action. When price breaks out of this channel, there's a good chance the correction is over and the main trend has resumed. Here's an example of a trend channel in a chart of Soybeans. Notice how the upper trendline provided support for the subsequent rally.
Bottom line is, if you've been considering adding technical analysis to your arsenal, know that it doesn't have to be complicated. As Jeffrey Kennedy likes to tell his students, "A kid with a ruler can make a million bucks in the stock market if he/she knows how to draw a trendline."
5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading Decisions
Learn five ways to draw trendlines that will help you to identify support and resistance, the end of a move, and changes in trend -- critical information for your trading success.
A Timely Lesson for Today’s Stock Market Investors
"The names may change, but the psychology remains the same."
By Elliott Wave International
Have you ever compared chart patterns from history with financial markets today? Elliott Wave International can show you the unique value of doing exactly that.
Because patterns on market charts repeat themselves. It happens across the globe, regardless of time period. When a still-unfolding pattern in the present looks a lot like a chart from the past, the price action to come may well remain on that earlier path.
Which means you can anticipate what's next. [Ed. note: this video link shows you an example]
As the book The Mania Chronicles (2009) by Peter Kendall and Robert Prechter says:
The names may change, but the psychology remains the same.
The Mania Chronicles is an account of the financial bubble between 1995 and 2008, and it illustrates the point with this September 2000 chart and commentary:
Since January , the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast has been tracking the NASDAQ's uncanny resemblance to the Japanese Nikkei-225 in 1989 and 1990. Now that it has fallen and bounced, it has acquired a look that is also very similar to the post-peak performance of the 1929 DJIA, the 1987 DJIA and the 1997 Hong Kong Hang Seng index.
In all cases, the manic final run to all-time highs was followed by an initial leg down that led to a three-wave countertrend rebound, the classic Elliott wave signature of a correction. Look closely, and you will notice that these rebounds usually start with a big up day (sometimes on a gap) that fools the bulls into thinking that a major bottom has been recorded. The rallies last mere days, though, and then prices turn down in a crash. The NASDAQ gapped higher off its May low at 3043 and then traced a three-wave move to the September 1 high of 4260. The decline since then has violated the trendline support that contained the entire countertrend rally.
…The clock is ticking for the start of the "cascading phase" of the pattern. Prices may rally briefly, but a severe decline is likely.
As we now know, the NASDAQ did cascade downward into 2002, with the entire 2000-2002 bear market consuming 78% of the index's value.
Lately, Elliott Wave International has also been reviewing other chart formations with similarities to the present.
In July 2017, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast showed this chart and said:
The chart shows [a] succession of tops. The bottom four panels show peaks in real estate, commodities and bonds since 2006, and an impending high in stocks. The topping sequence is similar to that which occurred during the last peak of Supercycle degree, wave (III) in 1929. The current top is a Grand Supercycle degree peak ….
Since we showed that chart in July 2017, yet another chart pattern surfaced in the stock market -- and it's eerily similar to 1929. EWI's Robert Folsom reveals that pattern, in his Chart of the Day video titled "Believe Your Own Eyes: Ghost of a Stock Market Past in the Present." Follow this link to watch the video.
dimanche 14 janvier 2018
The new year is full of new market opportunities. We'd like to help you capture them.
On Wednesday, January 17, at 11 AM Eastern, our friends at Elliott Wave International (elliottwave.com) are hosting a live, free webinar for traders looking for an edge:
Simply put, this free event will show you how to jump on opportunities most traders will miss.
It takes work, but you can be a part of the 10%.
Jeffrey Kennedy's live January 17 webinar can help you get there. Get your free seat now.
jeudi 9 novembre 2017
vendredi 13 octobre 2017
By Editorial Staff
Tue, 10 Oct 2017 15:00:00 ET
So, there we have it. Deflation has started.
The Federal Reserve announced last month that they would start to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, thereby starting the process we call Quantitative Tightening (QT). As expected, they are aiming to do it gently and quietly, by not reinvesting bonds as they mature, starting with sums of around $6 billion of Treasuries and $4 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). The scale of non-reinvestment will gradually increase. Once in full swing, the Fed's balance sheet could reduce by up to $150 billion each quarter.